I came across an interesting list the other day,
called “Nine Things That Will Disappear in Our Lifetime” written by a fellow
from Florida named Plinio Granado which appeared on digitaljournal.com. I
thought, someone sounds awfully sure of himself, but when I read the list, I
agreed. I’ll put it at the end of this post so I won’t interfere with the “narrative
flow” of the piece. (Right.)
Basically, Mr. Granado says the post office, the “cheque” (check to you and me on this side of the pond), the (paper) newspaper, the (physical) book,
the land line telephone, recorded music, network television, “things” you own,
and privacy are toast. He discusses each one in
the article and includes his rationale for thinking each will disappear in 30 or 40 years
or even sooner. Some I just have to say, “Yep,” good as gone. Those would be the
post office, the check (I used to write 50 a month. Now I do one or two),
network television, and privacy. For the others, I have some comments.
Starting with the paper newspaper and physical
books, I think we are at a watershed. By and large, the younger generation has embraced the
epaper and the ebook. In the area I live in there are a number of
good hyperlocal electronic papers. Some of my friends write for these papers,
and they are darned good writers. At the same time, I think people my age have
one foot planted in each world. I have a Nook and read the local paper online
but I still like the feel of a book in my hand (and its battery never runs out)
and being able to fold the Post so I
can work on the crossword. Paper newspapers and books might go the way of the
buggy whip, though, although I think there will always be devotees of each,
just as some people still ride horses for recreation. They might still be used
on some ranches in the West, but my understanding is that on the big cattle
ranches the cowboys ride ATV’s.
A writer friend of mine believes that physical books
will survive in used book stores as the castoffs of those who still use books, and will be a place where writers and aficionados of the books will gather to
write, contemplate and discuss. There’s a phenomenon that has sprung up with
the advent of so much personal technology called “high tech, low touch,”
meaning that the same people who embrace all the technological devices will
also engage in traditional activities such as weaving, knitting, painting or
playing instruments (just to name a few activities) as a counter to all the
technology. Some readers of electronic books will go to have an "old school" experience at used book stores. Make sense to me.
A number of young people, including our daughters
have only cell phones now. We still have a land line and I wonder why. The
rationale used to be that the landlines worked during a power failure and of course cell
phone batteries would run down if they couldn’t be recharged at a wall socket.
Well, Amy’s college roommate Kyle was without power in New England this past
winter for ten days and charged her cell phone from her car. I think land line
phones will become as dead as phones with dials. Remember those? I do, dimly.
Recorded music has changed drastically in the cyber
age, with bands and singers being able to bypass music companies and establish
a following directly through the internet. So, I’m conceding that one. At the
same time, the high tech/low touch principle means more people are making their
own music. The popularity of local choruses is at an all-time high.
When composer Joseph Martin was here for our Voices
United 2012 workshop and concert, he talked at lunch about the disappearance of
objects from our lives. An example is the CD collection, which has been
replaced by MP3 files on a player. As a result, said Martin, it’s no longer
possible to walk into someone’s house and know something about their taste in
music. It’s not visible: it’s a digital file on a computer, or increasingly, on
the Cloud. It is possible even now to keep pictures, sound files, movies,
artwork and even holograms of objects completely hidden away from view and call them up on demand.
I remember watching the original Star Trek series and thinking, man, they
don’t have much stuff. Spock’s cabin
had a few weird looking objects sitting around and that was it. Undoubtedly
that was a cost-saving measure for the production since the set dressers didn’t
have to do much. But I wonder if Gene Roddenberry was on to something about how we
will live in the future. As for now, I’m resisting this. I want to put my CD
tracks on the computer but that takes time and the mp3 files don’t have the
sound quality of disks. Still, mp3's are easier to carry and more convenient
so I’m sure I will make the switch. As for the rest, I have too many objects
that mean something to me sitting around. Yep, it’s a bear to dust and
makes for a cluttered look, but it represents who I am…for now. But hang on. I
have a feeling we’re all going to live in a castle on a Cloud. And I hate that song...
Here’s the list of
Nine
Things That Will Disappear in Our Lifetime
Whether these changes are good or
bad depends in part, on how we adapt to them. But, ready or not, here they
come.
1. The Post Office
Get ready to imagine a world without
the post office. They are so deeply in financial trouble that there is probably
no way to sustain it long term. Email, Fed Ex, and UPS have just about wiped
out the minimum revenue needed to keep the post office alive. Most of your mail
every day is junk mail and bills.
2. The Cheque
Britain is already laying the
groundwork to do away with cheques by 2018. It costs the financial system
billions of dollars a year to process cheques. Plastic cards and online transactions
will lead to the eventual demise of the cheque. This plays right into the death
of the post office. If you never paid your bills by mail and never received
them by mail, the post office would absolutely go out of business.
3. The Newspaper
The younger generation simply
doesn't read the newspaper. They certainly don't subscribe to a daily delivered
print edition. That may go the way of the milkman and the laundry man. As for
reading the paper online, get ready to pay for it. The rise in mobile Internet
Devices and e-readers has caused all the newspaper and magazine publishers to
form an alliance. They have met with Apple, Amazon, and the major cell phone
companies to develop a model for paid subscription services.
4. The Book
You say you will never give up the
physical book that you hold in your hand and turn
the literal pages. I said the same
thing about downloading music from iTunes. I wanted my hard copy CD. But I
quickly changed my mind when I discovered that I could get albums for half the
price without ever leaving home to get the latest music. The same thing will
happen with books. You can browse a bookstore online and even read a preview
chapter before you buy. And the price is less than half that of a real book.
And think of the convenience! Once you start flicking your fingers on the
screen instead of the book, you find that you are lost in the story, can't wait
to see what happens next, and you forget that you're holding a gadget instead
of a book.
5. The Land Line Telephone
Unless you have a large family and
make a lot of local calls, you don't need it anymore. Most people keep it
simply because they've always had it. But you are paying double charges for
that extra service. All the cell phone companies will let you call customers using
the same cell provider for no charge against your minutes
6. Music
This is one of the saddest parts of
the change story. The music industry is dying a slow death. Not just because of
illegal downloading. It's the lack of innovative new music being given a chance
to get to the people who would like to hear it. Greed and corruption is the
problem. The record labels and the radio conglomerates are simply
self-destructing. Over 40% of the music purchased today is "catalogue
items," meaning traditional music that the public is familiar with. Older
established artists. This is also true on the live concert circuit. To explore
this fascinating and disturbing topic further, check out the book,
"Appetite for Self-Destruction" by Steve Knopper, and the video documentary,
"Before the Music Dies."
7. Television
Revenues to the networks are down
dramatically. Not just because of the economy. People are watching TV and
movies streamed from their computers. And they're playing games and doing lots
of other things that take up the time that used to be spent watching TV. Prime
time shows have degenerated down to lower than the lowest common denominator.
Cable rates are skyrocketing and commercials run about every 4 minutes and 30
seconds. I say good riddance to most of it. It's time for the cable companies
to be put out of our misery. Let the people choose what they want to watch
online and through
Netflix.
8. The "Things" That You
Own
Many of the very possessions that we
used to own are still in our lives, but we may not actually own them in the
future. They may simply reside in "the cloud." Today your computer
has a hard drive and you store your pictures, music, movies, and documents.
Your software is on a CD or DVD, and you can always re-install it if need be.
But all of that is changing. Apple, Microsoft, and Google are all finishing up
their latest "cloud services."
That means that when you turn on a
computer, the Internet will be built into the operating system. So, Windows,
Google, and the Mac OS will be tied straight into the Internet. If you click an
icon, it will open something in the Internet cloud. If you save something, it
will be saved to the cloud. And you may pay a monthly subscription fee to the
cloud provider.
In this virtual world, you can
access your music or your books, or your whatever from any laptop or handheld
device. That's the good news. But, will you actually own any of this
"stuff" or will it all be able to disappear at any moment in a big
"Poof?" Will most of the things in our lives be disposable and
whimsical? It makes you want to run to the closet and pull out that photo
album, grab a book from the shelf, or open up a CD case and pull out the
insert.
9. Privacy
If there ever was a concept that we
can look back on nostalgically, it would be privacy. That's gone! There are
cameras on the street, in most of the buildings, and even built
into your computer and cell phone.
But you can be sure that 24/7, "They" know who you are and where you
are, right down to the GPS coordinates, and the Google Street View. If you buy
something, your habit is put into a zillion profiles, and your ads will change
to reflect those habits.
"They" will try to get you
to buy something else. Again and again ...